Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.014731 0.016683 0.018801 0.021269 0.024068 0.027145 0.030785
2025-06-29 0.011386 0.014011 0.017104 0.021021 0.025857 0.031637 0.039084
2025-07-06 0.009304 0.012112 0.015611 0.020302 0.026435 0.034201 0.044808
2025-07-13 0.008397 0.011448 0.015432 0.021026 0.028699 0.038885 0.053491
2025-07-20 0.007635 0.010834 0.015182 0.021539 0.030627 0.043200 0.062007
2025-07-27 0.007068 0.010395 0.015081 0.022186 0.032729 0.047868 0.071390
2025-08-03 0.006373 0.009682 0.014497 0.022040 0.033618 0.050813 0.078472
2025-08-10 0.005822 0.009114 0.014049 0.022022 0.034648 0.053998 0.086141
2025-08-17 0.005263 0.008470 0.013416 0.021635 0.035037 0.056184 0.092388
2025-08-24 0.004920 0.008130 0.013214 0.021892 0.036444 0.060053 0.101648
2025-08-31 0.004534 0.007681 0.012790 0.021737 0.037138 0.062789 0.109225
2025-09-07 0.004327 0.007508 0.012799 0.022294 0.039057 0.067697 0.120925
2025-09-14 0.003895 0.006919 0.012068 0.021533 0.038663 0.068669 0.125895
2025-09-21 0.003588 0.006521 0.011632 0.021251 0.039089 0.071110 0.133748
2025-09-28 0.003245 0.006029 0.010985 0.020525 0.038631 0.071896 0.138559
2025-10-05 0.003149 0.005977 0.011125 0.021257 0.040938 0.077948 0.153934
2025-10-12 0.003029 0.005871 0.011153 0.021775 0.042873 0.083449 0.168723
2025-10-19 0.002935 0.005805 0.011250 0.022430 0.045124 0.089733 0.185644
2025-10-26 0.002751 0.005547 0.010955 0.022282 0.045752 0.092857 0.196351
2025-11-02 0.002598 0.005337 0.010735 0.022264 0.046637 0.096557 0.208584
2025-11-09 0.002417 0.005056 0.010351 0.021872 0.046706 0.098573 0.217370
2025-11-16 0.002317 0.004934 0.010281 0.022133 0.048178 0.103642 0.233295
2025-11-23 0.002184 0.004731 0.010027 0.021976 0.048727 0.106773 0.245153